Logo Hotsuto
All Newsletters Latest Emails Categories
Pricing What's New Log In Sign Up

Marginal REVOLUTION

Extraordinary Labor Market Developments and the 2022-23 Disinflation

06-18-2024

From a new NBER working paper by Steven J. Davis: Two extraordinary U.S. labor market developments facilitated the sharp disinflation in 2022-23 without raising the unemployment rate. First, pandemic-driven infection worries and social distancing intent…
Read on blog or Reader
Site logo image Marginal REVOLUTION Read on blog or Reader

Extraordinary Labor Market Developments and the 2022-23 Disinflation

Tyler Cowen

June 18

From a new NBER working paper by Steven J. Davis:

Two extraordinary U.S. labor market developments facilitated the sharp disinflation in 2022-23 without raising the unemployment rate. First, pandemic-driven infection worries and social distancing intentions caused a sizable drag on labor force participation that began to reverse in the first quarter of 2022, and perhaps earlier. As the reversal unfolded, it raised labor supply and reduced wage growth. Second, the pandemic-instigated shift to work from home (WFH) raised the amenity value of employment in many jobs and for many workers. This development lowered wage-growth pressures along the transition path to a new equilibrium with pay packages that recognized higher remote work levels and their benefits to workers. Surveys of business executives imply that the shift to WFH lowered average wage growth by two percentage points from spring 2021 to spring 2023. A direct inspection finds that average real wage growth from 2021 Q1 to 2024 Q1 in the U.S. economy was at least 3.5 to 4.4 ppts below the path suggested by pre-pandemic experience. This large shortfall in real wage growth aligns well with the interpretation of the 2022-23 disinflation offered here.

Of course this is an attempt to answer the question "why didn't we have a recession?

Comment

Marginal REVOLUTION © 2024. Manage your email settings or unsubscribe.

WordPress.com and Jetpack Logos

Get the Jetpack app

Subscribe, bookmark, and get real-time notifications - all from one app!

Download Jetpack on Google Play Download Jetpack from the App Store
WordPress.com Logo and Wordmark title=

Automattic, Inc. - 60 29th St. #343, San Francisco, CA 94110  

Respond To Email
Mark
© 2025 hotsuto.com
  • About Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Service