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HEY Y’ALL! 🔥

Thanks for all the great feedback from the lots I shared last Wednesday!

📈 Top Picks from the Last Issue:

I’m excited to share 4 artists and lots worth checking out for this week. Plus a mystery artist exclusively for Frame & Flame VIPs!

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1) Tania Marmolejo

💭 My 2 Cents: Tania Marmolejo's "You Can't Join Us" (2020) is hitting the auction block this month, and I've got some thoughts. The $20,000 - $30,000 USD estimate is intriguing, sitting below her $34,500 average sold lot value. I appreciate Marmolejo's bold style - her exploration of female identity through expressive portraiture is compelling. But I'm approaching this lot with caution. Since her breakout solo at Volery Gallery, we've seen her average realized prices drop from $43,000 to $27,000 in 2024 - a 36.5% decline. That's not a trend I like to see. The numbers paint a complex picture. Sales volume exploded in a 38% from 2021 to 2023, suggesting increased recognition. But the 68.57% sell-through rate hints at potential collector fatigue. Negative year-over-year growth rates in average prices (-19% in 2024) further support this cooling trend. For risk-tolerant collectors, this could be an opportunity. The estimate falls between her most common price segment ($10,000 - $30,000) and average median price ($25,000) for the last two years. If you believe in Marmolejo's long-term potential, it might be an entry point. Personally, I'm in wait-and-see mode. I want to see market stabilization or a major catalyst - like a prestigious museum acquisition. Her volatile hammer ratios (2.1 in 2021 to 1.1 in 2023) suggest the market is still figuring out her value. If you're set on collecting Marmolejo, focus on distinctive works from her peak period (2021-2022). But I'm holding off until I see clearer market direction. This auction could be a key indicator - outperformance might signal renewed interest, underperformance could mean we haven't hit bottom yet. In this cooling phase, patience is key. I'm watching closely, but not jumping in just yet.

2) Jamie Nares

💭 My 2 Cents: I've been mulling over this upcoming Phillips lot - a 2008 untitled oil on paper by Jamie Nares, sized 22.01 x 60.51 inches, estimated at $30,000 - $40,000. It's an interesting piece, especially considering the recent "Nares Traces" exhibition at Kasmin Gallery that just wrapped up last month. That show, featuring over 100 works on paper, has really put Nares' paper pieces in the spotlight. I'm curious to see how it impacts this lot's performance. The timing feels significant - there's likely still a buzz in the air from the exhibition. Looking at Nares' market data, I'm intrigued by the steady climb in hammer ratios, reaching 1.5 this year. It suggests growing buyer enthusiasm, which could play out interestingly for this piece. I appreciate how this work showcases Nares' signature sweeping brushstrokes. It's a technique that's become increasingly recognized, especially since her 2019 retrospective at the Milwaukee Art Museum. The $30,000 - $40,000 estimate puts this in a less saturated price bracket for Nares, which I find appealing. We see a lot of action under $10,000, but this mid-range is less crowded. That said, I'd be cautious about the market's volatility. Those year-over-year swings from +862.5% to -72.3% are pretty dramatic. It underscores the importance of timing with Nares' work. If you're considering this lot, I'd say go in with a clear strategy. Given the recent exhibition and market trends, the estimate seems fair, but be prepared for competition. I'd set my ceiling at about 20% above the high estimate - so around $48,000. Overall, I see more upside than downside here, especially for collectors interested in process-oriented abstraction and willing to hold medium to long-term.

3) Danielle Orchard

💭 My 2 Cents: Danielle Orchard's "Pond" from 2014 is catching my eye, and not just for its vibrant modernist-inspired style. I've seen my fair share of market hype, but Orchard's trajectory feels different. The estimate of $15,000 - $20,000 seems conservative. I'd be looking at this as a potential steal, but with a cautious eye on the bigger picture. Orchard's market has been a rollercoaster. Her average price of $53,911 is impressive, but the year-over-year growth tells a different story: -78.88% from 2021 to 2022, then -40.72% to 2023. It's a classic case of market correction after a speculative boom. What I find intriguing is the price segmentation. Most works sell in the $10,000-$50,000 range, but the real value is in the $100,000+ segment. This "Pond" piece could bridge that gap. The geographical spread is promising. US leads with $1,300,000 in sales, but Asia's $600,000 shows emerging interest. This global appeal could provide a cushion against regional downturns. I'm a bit concerned about the increasing price volatility. The coefficient of variation jumped from 80% in 2022 to 118% in 2024. It's a double-edged sword - higher risk, but also potential for greater rewards. Personally, I like Orchard's blend of modernist influence and contemporary narrative. Her focus on female figures feels relevant in today's art discourse. If I were bidding, I'd go in with a long-term perspective. The current market cooling might scare off short-term flippers, creating an opportunity for serious collectors. But I'd be prepared for some price turbulence in the near term. In essence, "Pond" represents a chance to grab a significant early work from an artist on the rise. The risk is there, but so is the potential. It's the kind of piece that could anchor a contemporary collection.

4) Jamian Juliano-Villani

💭 My 2 Cents: Jamian Juliano-Villani's "Lady" (2014) is hitting Christie's New York this July. The estimate of $15,000 - $20,000 USD seems conservative, especially given its history. Let's look at the data. Juliano-Villani's market has been volatile. In 2021, her works averaged $163,627, but by 2023, this plummeted to $27,488 - an 83% drop. The coefficient of variation for 2023 sales is 1.22, highlighting this instability. What's intriguing is this piece's past. "Lady" sold in 2021 for $271,408, far above its $12,000 - $26,000 estimate. The current lower estimate could indicate condition issues, a strategy to attract bidders, or reflect the market cooldown. Institutionally, Juliano-Villani is gaining ground. Her works are in the Whitney, Guggenheim, and Brooklyn Museum collections. She participated in the 2022 Venice Biennale, typically a market booster. However, this exposure hasn't translated to sustained price growth yet. Her recent Gagosian representation, culminating in the "It" solo show, could be a game-changer. Gagosian's reach might reignite market interest. Sales distribution is noteworthy. The "Over $100,000" segment generates the most volume, but "$10,000-$50,000" has the most works sold. This suggests a market still finding its footing. For collectors, this lot could be an opportunity. Our analysis suggests a 78.03% chance the price will exceed $20,000. However, the risks are significant given the market volatility. My strategy recommendation depends on risk tolerance. For those with a long-term outlook, it could be an attractive acquisition. The institutional backing and gallery representation offer some protection. For conservative collectors, I'd suggest monitoring her market for 12-18 months. The impact of Gagosian and future exhibitions could be pivotal. In conclusion, "Lady" encapsulates Juliano-Villani's market: potential-rich but uncertain.

5) Hank Willis Thomas

💭 My 2 Cents: I'm intrigued by Hank Willis Thomas's "Branded Head" coming up at Christie's New York. This 2003 piece really showcases Thomas's knack for blending social commentary with striking visuals. I like how he uses corporate symbols to challenge our ideas about identity and consumerism. Thomas received the Medal of Arts 2023, which I think has given a nice boost to his market. But let's look at some numbers. The average lot value for Thomas is $14,817, but the median is only $3,200. This gap tells me the market is top-heavy - a few high-priced works are pulling up the average. I'd be cautious about the price volatility we're seeing. In 2018, we saw a peak of $62,500, but recently prices have settled around $20,000. The estimate of $20,000-$30,000 for "Branded Head" feels a bit conservative to me, especially considering its size and limited edition. I suspect Christie's might be trying to drum up interest with this pricing. One thing I really like about this piece is its size - at 87.24 x 47.24 inches, it's a statement piece. My data shows that for Thomas, size significantly impacts price, so that's a good sign. It's worth noting that Jordan Schnitzer, a major collector, owns over 150 of Thomas's works. That kind of institutional backing gives me confidence in Thomas's long-term prospects. Personally, I think this piece has potential, but I'd set a firm upper limit given the market's unpredictability.

🔗 Market Stories

How small galleries are thriving in a cooling art market (link)

Global art market insights: What 2024 holds for galleries (link)

The collector's guide to keeping your art alive and valuable (link)

Why Japan is becoming the new hotspot for Chinese artists (link)

The art market's delayed reckoning: Why 2020's reset is finally happening (link)

Why museums are getting smaller but more expensive (link)

Who are the top-selling ultra-contemporary Asian artists at auction? (link)

-THAT’S A WRAP-

See you next Wednesday!

-Alvaro (@theartmarketguy)

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