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HEY Y’ALL! 🔥

Thanks for all the great feedback from the lots I shared last Wednesday!

📈 Top Picks from the Last Issue:

I’m excited to share 4 artists and lots worth checking out for this week. Plus a mystery artist report available only for top referrers of Frame & Flame!*

^{*Invite one friend with your referral link to get it: https://www.frameandflame.com/subscribe?ref=ZA8TK5Y2HL}

1) Rashid Johnson

💭My 2 Cents: Cosmic Slop 'Hardcore Jollies' from 2012 is a prime example of Johnson's early experimentation with his now-iconic "Cosmic Slop" series, and I've got a feeling we might be looking at a sleeper hit here. At 96 x 120 inches, it's a large piece from 2012, right when Johnson was hitting his stride. The estimate of $40,000 - $60,000 feels conservative to me, especially given Johnson's recent market performance. Looking at the data, Johnson's average auction price has soared from $57,000 in 2020 to $370,000 in 2024. That's a staggering 550% increase in just four years. I'm seeing a trend where his earlier works, particularly from the "Cosmic Slop" series, are becoming increasingly scarce on the market. This scarcity, coupled with the piece's solid provenance and exhibition history at the de la Cruz Collection, could drive significant interest. I've noticed a shift in Johnson's collector base recently. There's growing interest from tech entrepreneurs and younger collectors, which I think bodes well for long-term price appreciation. His work's engagement with identity and materiality seems to resonate strongly with this demographic. That said, I'd be cautious about assuming this trend will continue indefinitely. However, Johnson's institutional support and critical acclaim provide a solid foundation. Analyzing his market distribution, there's an interesting gap between early works from the last decade, like this "Cosmic Slop" piece, and his more recent, higher-priced pieces. I have a feeling this gap might start closing as collectors seek to round out their Johnson collections. I'd suggest setting a maximum bid around $80,000-$100,000. It's above the estimate, but given Johnson's current average price of $370,000, it could still represent good value.

2) Alex Israel

💭 My 2 Cents: Alex Israel's "Sky Backdrop" from 2012 is hitting the auction block. At 108 x 192 inches, It's a significant work that highlights Israel's unique style, mixing LA's movie-like feel with contemporary art. I like the estimate range of $40,000 - $60,000 USD. It's notably lower than some of his top sellers, which have gone for over $1 million. In my experience, Israel's mid-range works often outperform estimates by 20-30%. Looking at his sales distribution, there's an interesting gap in the $50,000 - $100,000 range. Only about 15% of his sold lots fall here, compared to 35% below $50,000 and 50% above $100,000. This lot sits right in that sweet spot, which could lead to some war bidding. I've been tracking Israel's market performance closely, and his average price has seen a compound annual growth rate of about 14.5% over the past five years. That's impressive when you consider the broader contemporary art market has grown at around 7-8% annually. One thing that's caught my eye is the growing interest from Asian collectors. Sales to Asian buyers have increased by about 25% in the last two years. This expanding collector base might help prices go up in the future. Now, let's talk about AI. Israel's recent REMEMBR installation at Gagosian London is a game-changer. I've spoken with several collectors who are excited about this new direction. My gut feeling is that this tech integration could drive up prices for his earlier, more traditional works like "Sky Backdrop" as collectors look to own a piece of his pre-AI oeuvre. In general, I'm cautiously optimistic about this lot.

3) Gabriel Orozco

💭 My 2 Cents: These three works on paper from 2000 could be more significant than their modest $8,000-$12,000 estimate suggests. Orozco, now 62, has had quite the journey since the '90s. I've always admired how he finds the beauty in seemingly simple things, and these works seem to capture that essence. The timing here is interesting. With his upcoming show at White Cube Seoul and the Chapultepec Park project in Mexico City, there's a renewed buzz around Orozco. Looking at the data, Orozco's market shows some trends to note. His works on paper have seen a gradual upward trend, with prices for early 2000s pieces up about 15% since 2020. That said, I'd be cautious about viewing this solely as a short-term investment. Orozco's market has shown some volatility, especially when it comes to his large-scale pieces. What really stands out to me is how his market has spread all over the world. While the US and UK dominate, I'm noticing growing interest in Asia. The Seoul exhibition could really help things move forward there. Institutionally, Orozco is rock-solid. With works in MoMA, Tate Modern, and Centre Pompidou, his place in the contemporary canon is secure. This provides a safety net, but I think it also leaves room for growth, especially in works on paper. Overall, I see this lot as a compelling opportunity. It's a chance to acquire multiple works by a blue-chip artist at a relatively accessible price point. While it may not offer immediate high returns, it could be a smart long-term play. My advice? Keep a close eye on this one, but also watch Orozco's market as a whole. The way his different styles and times interact gives interesting clues about the larger market trends.

4) Wade Guyton

💭 My 2 Cents: Let's start with the basics. Guyton, born in '72, has been a major player in the post-conceptual art scene since the mid-2000s. His digital paintings, created using inkjet printers on linen, have redefined what painting can be in the digital age. Looking at the bigger picture, Guyton's market has matured since its 2014 peak when his record hit just under $6 million. We're now in a phase of steadier growth, which I actually find more sustainable. His institutional presence is rock-solid - MoMA, Centre Pompidou, Whitney - you name it. This backbone gives me confidence in his long-term value. I've been crunching some numbers, and here's what stands out: over the past five years, Guyton's average auction price has stabilized around $350,000. But there's a growing gap between his top-tier works and the rest. The top 10% of sales now account for over 60% of his market value. To me, this suggests collectors are getting more discerning, focusing on key periods and pivotal works. That's why I like this lot. It's from 2005, a crucial year when Guyton was refining his signature style. Plus, its exhibition history is impeccable - Kunstverein Hamburg, Whitney, de la Cruz Collection. That's serious provenance. But let's talk risks. Guyton's market is mature, and we won't see early 2010s-style growth again. There's also the question of how his digital printing will age, both physically and conceptually. All things considered, I see an opportunity here. This lot represents a chance to snag a significant Guyton at a relatively accessible price. Given its history and importance, I'd be comfortable bidding up to $200,000. It's a classic Guyton. from a pivotal period, with rock-solid provenance. For long-term collectors, this could be a smart play.

5) Vaughn Spann

💭 My 2 Cents: I like the provenance on this piece. Coming from David Castillo and shown at de la Cruz Collection? That's solid. Plus, it's from the "Marked Man" series, which I've noticed tends to perform well. But let's zoom out a bit. Spann's market has been... volatile, to put it mildly. We saw a peak in 2022 with average prices near $200,000, but it's been downhill since. The sell-through rate drop from 90% in 2022 to 40% in 2024 is hard to ignore. That said, I'm not ready to sound the alarm just yet. The upcoming "Allegories" show at Tampa Museum of Art tells me institutions still believe in Spann. And his diverse practice? That could be a real strength in this market. I'd be cautious about a few things though. The declining hammer ratio (from 3.17 in 2020 to 1.01 in 2024) suggests the market might be overestimating Spann's works. And the shift towards lower price brackets? That's something to watch. His themes resonate strongly in our current cultural moment. For this lot, I'd be comfortable bidding within the estimate range, but I wouldn't go wild. The market's clearly in a corrective phase for Spann. In the end, while Spann's market has cooled, I believe the fundamentals are still strong. But be prepared for some bumps along the way.

🔗 Market Stories

Why Asian mega-collectors are shifting from buying to selling (link)

Christie's sees 22% drop in sales as young collectors hold steady (link)

Jim Carrey's art collection hits auction block (link)

Surrealism's centennial is reshaping art history (link)

George Condo on remixing art history and hip-hop fame (link)

Jacqueline de Jong's late-career surge impacts avant-garde legacy (link)

Museums struggle to embrace digital and tech-based art (link)

Japan's art market is slowly reclaiming global prominence (link)

-THAT’S A WRAP-

See you next Wednesday!

-Alvaro (@theartmarketguy)

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